Secondly, I have a theory that I’m working on for a post. (I can’t tell you yet. Suspense.) But I’d like your opinions, to see how far off I am. So allow me to throw out the vaguest possible poll question: Who are your favorite actors, and why? And to get even more specific, what are your favorite film/TV performances? Past, present, whatever (and I’m using “actor” for brevity, but this includes both genders). Chime in, b-rollers. Please and thank you.

But…that makes total sense, doesn’t it? Hello War Horse, Gary Oldman, Janet McTeer; goodbye Drive, Ryan Gosling, Michael Fassbender, Shailene Woodley.

Now, I’m not saying that these aren’t worthy nominees (well, War Horse notwithstanding). By all accounts, Oldman and McTeer are phenomenal. And Rooney Mara beat out Tilda Swinton for the fifth Best Actress spot, so yay for edgy. I just think it’s worth mentioning, since Twitter promptly burst into flames.

Anyway, let’s take a look at some of the other surprises, shall we? Chime in with your thoughts, too.

• 9 Best Picture nominees! Holy hell. The only major surprise is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which I have not seen yet. I wrote a while ago that I really wanted to, but then the reviews came out and I gathered that everything that made Oskar (the kid) endearing and interesting in the book played as cloying and creepy onscreen. Most of the critics I like have responded with “what the hell?” reactions to this nomination, and yet now I feel obligated to see it. Dammit.
• Speaking of obligated, I’ve moved The Tree of Life to the top of my Netflix queue. I’m 85% sure that I will be playing sudoku within the first 30 minutes. But onward.
• On the Supporting Actor race: Which Academy member did Albert Brooks murder? Honest question. He was a frontrunner, wasn’t he? Like, a month ago? Wow. (I was 4/5 – Nick Nolte got Brooks’ spot.)
• 4/5 on Supporting Actress, too (but I was damn close, saying it would come down to McTeer v. Woodley. Take that!). Also, a note on Melissa McCarthy’s nomination for Bridesmaids: I read approximately 692 tweets today with some variation of “You TOO can get an Oscar nomination for pooing in a sink!” Guys, let’s not whittle a really excellent comic performance down to its most basic, vulgar element. Grow up, please. If that’s all there was to it, Adam Sandler would be attending his 17th consecutive Oscar telecast.
• Best Actor, well, this was not my year. Clooney, Dujardin, Pitt in; Gosling and Fassbender out in favor of Damien Bichir and Gary Oldman. My plan is to see Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Shame this weekend, so I’ll be able to directly compare and contrast the Oldman-over-Fassbender decision then. Stay tuned.
• I’m a little perturbed that only one song from The Muppets was nominated for “Best Original Song,” (“Man or Muppet”) and that there were only two nominees overall. How do you leave off “Life’s a Happy Song” and rob us of a Jason Segel/Amy Adams/ENTIRE MUPPET GANG production number?! This wound is deep, Oscar voters. Deep.

Okay, well, them’s my initial thoughts. What say you? (For the record, I officially went 25/34 of the categories I predicted. If I were a baseball player, you would find that batting average ridiculously impressive. And give me 214 million dollars.)

Please note that I’m just talking about the big categories here, picture/acting/directing; I’m not in the loop or technologically astute enough to predict Best Sound Editing. But please feel free to do so if your hearing is better than mine.

Also, not to stall, but may I rant for a bit? I’d like to take a moment to discuss how, for this brief and shining moment, this is all kind of exciting and surprising; pretty soon, though, not so much. This endless awards season tends to iron out any of that pesky spontaneity, leaving us with a crisp, predictable Oscar telecast. Case in point: As much as I adore The Artist, it’s winning every award in reach, and the odds of it not tap-dancing away with the Best Picture prize are as likely as a professional NFL kicker missing a 32-yard field goal. (Too soon, Ravens fans? Sorry.) Anyway, my point is that if freshly-minted Golden Globers like George Clooney and Meryl Streep win a SAG Award this weekend, prepare yourselves for another charming, witty, rambling Oscar acceptance speech, rather than one of those, Oh my God, Adrien Brody won?! Wait, IS HE KISSING HALLE BERRY?!?!?! moments. Those days, I fear, are behind us.

Anywho, let’s get started.

Best Picture
Okay, see, right off the bat no one knows what the hell is going to happen here; there could be five nominees, or ten, or any number in between. And isn’t that at least mildly interesting? To anyone but me? No? Okay then.

The Artist is IN, as are Hugo and The Descendents. Moneyball, The Help and Midnight in Paris are highly probable. I would say The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, War Horse, Drive, Bridesmaids and The Tree of Life are in the “unlikely but possible” category. (I’m casting as wide a net as possible so that I seem brilliant and prophetic tomorrow. Is it working?) Twilight is definitely out, but there’s always the Razzies. I’ll be pulling for you, guys.

Since Beauty and the Beast was released twenty years ago and is apparently ineligible (whatever), the only glaring omission that I see is Harry Potter 7.2, a thrilling and brilliant series finale that is not getting nearly its due (Oh, that wizard movie, scoff the Muggles). But besides HP, Hugo and The Artist were my favorites this year, so color me satisfied. Also, there’s a 90% chance that I’m wrong, but I have a sneaking suspicion about Drive…

Official Prediction (in alphabetical order): The Artist, The Descendents, Drive, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball

Best Actor
George Clooney (The Descendents) is the clear frontrunner here, though I’ll be honest – I really hope that Jean Dujardin (The Artist) pulls a Roberto Benigni-style upset. Either way, they’re both highly likely to get nominations, along with Brad Pitt (Moneyball). Michael Fassbender (Shame) is almost certainly in, too. Last spot? Leonardo DiCaprio’s probably got a good shot with J.Edgar, but I vote for a surprise: I think that Drive gets a Best Picture nomination (see above), and Ryan Gosling has his crazy, stupid, love-ly (Ha! Sorry) year rewarded, too. Either that, or a true indie like Damien Bichir (A Better Life) or Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), and no, I have not seen either one of those movies.

Official Prediction: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt

Best Actress
At this point, it only seems fair that the Meryl Streep Award for Acting Excellence will probably go to the (Iron) Lady herself. This seems like a category of locks; I don’t see how Meryl (The Iron Lady) Viola Davis (The Help), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) and Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) get left off of the ballot. I guess if there’s a Dragon Tattoo movement afoot we could see Rooney Mara, though.

Also, another mini-rant: Why does the Best Actress prize this year seem to actually be “Best Powerhouse Performance in an Otherwise Unmemorable Movie”? By all accounts, that’s the best way to summarize The Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs (neither of which I’ve seen, so huge grain of salt, though it’s certainly true of My Week with Marilyn). I hate it when a film is supposedly worthy of an Oscar, and yet my gut reaction is, “Eh, I may Netflix it.”

Official Prediction: Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton, Michelle Williams

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer (and his nose) is surely in for Beginners. I’m sure that Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) and Albert Brooks (Drive) will make the cut, too. Jonah Hill’s been getting a lot of recognition for Moneyball, and not to be rude, but why, again? He was perfectly fine, but “Bravo, you successfully muted your sardonic jackass shtick!” is not a high bar to hurdle. But it’s not the world’s strongest year for supporting actors, apparently, so here we are. Anyway. In my dreams, Uggie the Dog (The Artist) fills the final slot, but it’ll probably be Nick Nolte (Warrior) or Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), neither of whom are as cuddly.

Official Prediction: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Jonah Hill, Christopher Plummer, Max von Sydow

Best Supporting Actress
…in The Help is the unofficial end of that phrase; Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain are both considered locks. So is Berenice Bejo (The Artist), and I’d love to see her win. Janet McTeer is apparently very good in Albert Nobbs so okay, we’ll put her on the shortlist. I think Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) gets in to provide the 2012 Oscar Memorial “SEE! We get comedy!” Moment (Not particularly, but whatever.) I wasn’t as wowed by Shailene Woodley (The Descendents) as a lot of people were (she was very good, but I didn’t necessarily think, “Holy crap, polish that girl an Oscar!”), but there’s a definite lack of rising young stars in the mix this year, and Best Supporting Actress has a tendency to be the Next Generation Award. So I think she sneaks in.

Official Prediction: Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Octavia Spencer, Shailene Woodley

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (Hugo) has to be in the lead for this, yes? He’s a movie guy who made a really great movie about how awesome movies are. Talk about catnip. With all The Artist momentum, there’ll definitely be a nomination for Michel Hazanavicius (pardon me while I take a victory lap for spelling that name correctly on the first try; feel free to express your admiration by humming the Rocky theme, or Vertigo). Alexander Payne (The Descendents) and Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) are in, too. So who does that leave? David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, dark and twisty and Fincher-esque)? Steven Spielberg (War Horse, no offense but not your best effort)? George Clooney (The Ides of March, ahem but ditto)? Tate Taylor (The Help)? I have no freaking clue, b-rollers. I’ll say Fincher gets in, but as far as I can tell it’s pick ‘em.

Official Prediction: Woody Allen, David Fincher, Michel Hazanavicius, Alexander Payne, Martin Scorsese

Okay, I’m done. What say you, b-rollers? Who are you rooting for tomorrow morning? Sound off! And I’ll check back tomorrow night with my reactions, and compare my predictions to the actual nominations. HOW WILL I DO?! (Spoiler: Probably not well.)

(To give you an idea of how tense this game was, here’s the post-game exchange between me and my roommate.
Me: “We won! Ohmigod, it was heartstopping.”
Roomie: “But doesn’t that make it more fun?!”
Me: “No. Not at all.”
Roomie: “But it’s more exciting!”
Me: “No. I’ve lost three years of my life.”)

Anyway, I will make it up to you, I promise. I’ll be back tomorrow with my Oscar predictions and dream cast, and then on Tuesday with reactions to the actual nominees. Sound good? Awesome.

In the meantime, feel free to leave your good luck wishes to the Super Bowl-bound Patriots in the comments section. See you tomorrow.

I’ll be back with some fresh thoughts this weekend, by the way. I’ve been taking a post-Globes break; when live-blogging in a cake-fueled sugar rush, certain side effects may occur. Anyway, let’s reconvene shortly.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I hear Miss Piggy’s on Project Runway this evening…

7:20: And we’re live! I’m happy to report that I’m live-blogging from my home in New Hampshire this evening, with my parents nearby. So expect a lot of b-roll parental exchanges this evening, such as me identifying Mary J. Blige, then my Mom asking what the hell she’s doing there. (Original song, I think?) This should be fun.

7:23: The red dress worn by one of the NBC co-hosts confounds me. It is side-less. How is that possible?

7:25: A John Carter promo, starring shirtless Tim Riggins! I’m so glad I skipped E. This almost makes up for FNL not getting a single blessed nomination. ALMOST.

7:26: How many marine mammals in danger stories do we need? Didn’t A Dolphin Tale come out six minutes ago? Hollywood is so out of ideas.

7:28: Madonna still sounding slightly, strangely British. To quote Gosford Park, “Is she British, or just affected?”

7:31: My Mom’s take on Claire Danes’ dress: “It looks like one of the rejects on Project Runway.” Well, then. (She’s also officially horrified that her comments might end up on the live blog. Too late.)

7:32: A lot of shiny, chain-mail-type dresses on the red carpet tonight. Not a trend I would have foreseen, gotta say.

7:35: Thank God Leonardo DiCaprio is this good-looking, because the oral J. Edgar Hoover bio that he’s delivering is boring the everloving crap out of me.

7:40: Just checked in on the Giants-Packers game, then switched back in time to see that the Betty White tide has not, in fact, abated. NBC is throwing her a 90th birthday party AND giving her a Candid Camera-type show. I love Betty White, but God almighty, folks.

7:41: Guys, Joey Tribbiani now has gray hair. It feels just about time for my own 90th birthday bash.

7:43: Wow, George Clooney not only brought along a girlfriend, but she got to talk into the mic and everything! This one might stick.

7:45: Okay, this sideless dress co-host person is hilarious. She’s taking it upon herself to bless everyone’s evening (no joke, like they need her approval), and she just introduced Emma Stone by saying that Emma’s dress “even puts mine to shame!” She’s super humble. Related story: I have never seen her before and only knew she was called “Jeannie” after she threw it to Carson. Thank God she’s here.

7:50: My Dad wants to know why Adam Levine is wearing sunglasses in the dark, and “because he’s a rock star?” does not seem like a satisfactory-enough answer. Help?

7:54: Jennie just said she was having “fashion sex” with Bryan Cranston. Challenge to Ricky Gervais: Make me shudder more than that exchange just did. Game on.

7:55: Just as my Mom comments that Sofia Vergara is in every commercial, one of her Pepsi commercials comes on. Of course it does.

7:57: So, with three minutes left, what’ve we got as the hit pop song that’s been mangled by working in movie stars’ names (ie, this year’s Golden Globes theme)? I’m giving “Moves Like Jagger” 2-to-1 odds, b-rollers.

8:00: “So, where was I?” Nice.

8:02: It’s a bit of a letdown to hear Ricky Gervais take down Eddie Murphy and Adam Sandler, two easy targets who aren’t present. Come on, Ricky.

8:05: These are shockingly easy shots, except at the HFPA and NBC. Who can take it.

8:06: Johnny Depp comes onstage to banter with Ricky Gervais (hilarious!) then introduce the footage for Hugo (jarringly abrupt). Anyone else upset that they didn’t cut to Brangelina as Johnny admitted he hasn’t seen The Tourist yet?

8:09: I suddenly find that I’m rooting for Albert Brooks to win Supporting Actor, simply because I think he’ll give a seriously entertaining speech.

8:10: Christopher Plummer wins for Supporting Actor. I’m 1 for 1. Also, we’re having a lengthy discussion about the specific shade of blue of Christopher Plummer’s nose. I’ll spare you.

8:13: Tina Fey horning in on Amy Poehler’s shot exemplifies why either one of those two should win the Globe. Alas, it goes to Laura Dern, who is blinding in jade-colored sparkles.

8:15: “Thanks to anyone who’s ever inspired all of us.” That’s quite a net to cast.

8:16: So, as we careen into the first commercial break, what are our thoughts on Ricky Gervais’ monologue (since, let’s be honest, the bulk of his work is now done)? I’m thinking that it was funnier overall, but much less offensive, so kind of a wash (and rather a letdown). Thoughts?

8:19: Whoa, Rob Lowe has been doing some serious GTL-ing. Also, the prompter breaks down as Rob and Julianne Moore introduce Miss Golden Globe, Andie MacDowell’s daughter, and Andie looks, um, peeved at the technical difficulties.

8:21: And we veer right into best Mini-Series or TV Movie. WHY NOW? Who scripted this show, for the love of God?!

8:22: And the Globe goes to…DOWNTON ABBEY! My Mom and I cheer aloud together. This is a show that crosses generations, people.

8:23: And we’re giving out the Best Actress, TV Movie/Mini-Series prize (because, of course we are), and of course it goes to Kate Winslet. It’s a rule.

8:32: Nicole Kidman’s dress has studs on it. STUDS. I don’t know what else to say about this.

8:36: We’re up to Best Actor in a TV Drama, which makes a boatload of sense. It goes to Kelsey Grammar, which I definitely did not foresee (hello, Bryan Cranston or Jeremy Irons?). Well, welcome back, Frasier.

8:38: And now we shall give out Best TV Drama before getting to the TV Drama Actress award. Sure, fine. (And it’s Homeland, which I’ve heard is magnificent. No way Claire Danes doesn’t win when her category comes up in 92 minutes.)

8:39: There’s a lot of murmuring in the background. Settle down, folks. We’ve got a long night ahead.

8:44: I just volunteered my Dad to go and get me some cake. This live-blogging from home thing is quite enjoyable.

8:45: The days of the hummable score are over, aren’t they? No more Star Wars for us, guys.

8:47: The composer from The Artist wins, and reads in broken English, which is adorable in theory. What does this do to stoke the Kim Novak drama (which, in my humble opinion, is much ado about absolutely nothing)?

8:49: And Original Song goes to “Masterpiece,” a song by Madonna that sounds not-at-all memorable (or costume drama-esque). And she’s clearly overwhelmed, eloquently saying, “Um…um…um.”

8:51: I know the conductor is probably afraid of Madonna, but it’s time to play the music. She’s rambling in her faux-British way.

8:52: Not to be rude, but I’m taking the Turkish actress’s call for world peace spiel as an opportunity to dig into my cake.

8:57: I think I just ingested enough sugar to get me through the rest of the show. BRING IT.

8:58: Idris Elba beats Lord Grantham. Sigh. “Oh, he’s English!” says my Mom, who recognized him as Charles from The Office (evil bastard).

8:59: “To present a scene from The Ides of March, here’s the star of Moneyball!” Even the announcer thinks this show is asinine.

9:01: Seth Rogen just got a bigger laugh for being raunchier than Ricky Gervais, and he also calls out My Week With Marilyn for not being a comedy. There is a 40% chance that Harvey Weinstein will have him assassinated tonight, but for the moment, he is my hero.

9:02: Michelle Williams wins Best Actress-Comedy! She was absolutely remarkable. This will be her consolation prize for not getting the Oscar, though I dearly wish she had more of a shot.

9:07: Piper Perabo’s dress is see-through. Who thought that was a good idea?

9:08: And now we’re at Supporting Actor in an HBO Show or Mini-Series. Peter Dinklage wins! None of my family watches this show so we have nothing to say, other than that we all thought that he was hilarious in Death at a Funeral (the real one, not the stupid Chris Rock remake).

9:10: Ricky Gervais is wearing the exact same outfit that he started in. Someone needs to tell him that this is unacceptable hosting behavior.

9:11: And now George Clooney is introducing Moneyball. Clooney and Pitt must’ve had some drunken bet, yes? Also, how much would you pay to have seen it?

9:13: Best animated film: The correct answer is Rango. That is all.

9:14: But The Adventures of Tintin wins because, of course, Steven Spielberg. That is all.

9:20: In spite of ourselves, my Mom and I just admitted that we will watch Fashion Star. Sad but true.

9:22: See, folks? See all the crazy studs on Nicole Kidman’s dress? I’m not nuts, right? Also, Woody Allen wins Best Screenplay for Midnight in Paris, which is awesome because he is not here. Moving right along…

9:24: William H. Macy and Felicity Huffman sing their intro to Best Supporting Actress in Anything on TV in the most adorable possible way. And then they present Maggie Smith’s trophy to Jessica Lange. I DO NOT ACCEPT THIS OUTRAGE.

9:30: Madonna delivers her anti-Ricky zingers like she’s been rehearsing them in her head for the last ninety seconds. Not a total shock that her acting career stalled.

9:32: I’m glad A Separation won, it’s supposed to be excellent. But I wouldn’t have been shocked if the HFPA baldly kissed up to Brangelina by giving it to In the Land of Blood and Honey, just for the hell of it.

9:34: I love Julianna Margulies, but I’m not enjoying green earrings with a purple dress. Not to go all Tim Gunn, but I find that combination alarming.

9:35: Claire Danes wins. But she’s there without her adorable British husband, who I have a huge crush on, so I’m chalking this up as a loss for me.

9:37: My Dad: “Oh, the girl with the ugly dress won.” Me: “It’s really a shame that you’re not a commentator, Dad.”

9:41: What does Smash mean, “Introducing Katharine McPhee”? Are we pretending her American Idol stint didn’t happen?

9:42: I love Emily Blunt, but mustard yellow + uncombed hair is not her top look.

9:43: Tina Fey and Jane Lynch? I had high hopes for this introduction, but meh. Also, if Alec Baldwin wins, isn’t this kind of a conflict of interest?

9:45: Matt LeBlanc wins the TV Comedy Actor prize for Episodes, and we cut to Eric Stonestreet looking like, “What in the hell is Episodes?” I concur.

9:47: Next up is Supporting Actress in a Movie, and Octavia Spencer wins and is so shocked that Viola Davis has to help her out of her seat. It seems like she’s the frontrunner now, which leads me to ask: How many times during the awards season are we going to have to hear this (kinda obnoxious) Mary J. Blige song?

9:49: Octavia really has to tighten this speech up. It’s a long season, and “every single person at Disney” is more than adequate, kay?

9:53: Guys, my Dad is nodding off. He might not make it to the presentation of Best TV Comedy Series.

9:54: Reese Witherspoon just delivered the phrase “philandering wife falls into a coma” with a sassy little smile. Uh, okay.

9:55: Hello, Sidney Poitier. Leap to your feet, rich people.

9:56: Sidney Poitier is a living legend, but if he keeps talking in this cadence, we’ll be here until the Oscars.

9:58: Man oh man, this Morgan Freeman montage is going to be epic. I may tear up at the Shawshank clips, not gonna lie.

10:03: Random thought during this touching moment, but was that Chris Tucker? Anyone know why he’s there?

10:05: Morgan Freeman is a man of such humor and class. There was no better choice to play God. Just saying.

10:10: Okay, Tina Fey has gotten to make out with Jon Hamm, Matt Damon and now James Marsden. I’m officially calling her an evil bitch.

10:11: Looking sharp, RDJ. Here to show the clip from The Artist, which will hopefully be set to the score of Vertigo.

10:12: I know this is a recurring theme, but Angelina Jolie looks absolutely. freaking. gorgeous.

10:13: Martin Scorsese wins Best Director, and I am STUNNED. And thrilled, I loved Hugo. Though clearly, I’m not nearly as thrilled as Leonardo DiCaprio.

10:16: No idea what Ricky Gervais just said, but it looked funny. Anyway. Salma Hayek and Antonio Banderas on to present TV Comedy Series to Modern Family.

10:18: Look at Phil Dunphy, rocking the hipster glasses.

10:20: The Sofia Vergara Pepsi commercial has officially been overplayed. I don’t give a good damn what Lola wants anymore.

10:24: I think Jessica Biel is testing possible wedding dress looks. Ixnay this one, dear.

10:25: Really hoping Jean Dujardin takes the prize for Best Actor – Comedy/Musical. J’adore him.

10:26: YES! Please bring Uggie onstage. Oh please oh please oh please.

10:27: An index card, Jean? Oh, just throw it away and tap dance.

10:29: Why is L’Oreal pronouncing their hair color line Sublime as “Sub-leem”? Here in the US of A, we call it sub-lime.

10:31: Anyone know if Joyful Noise is any good? You know what, don’t answer that.

10:33: Ricky Gervais has ditched the jacket and switched to a wine glass. Well, that’s something.

10:34: And Colin Firth (hello, Colin) is on to present Best Actress in a Drama. It’s going to Viola Davis or Meryl Streep, correct? Any dissension?

10:35: Well, if there’s one thing we know, it’s that a Meryl Streep acceptance speech is hella entertaining. What say you, Dame Meryl?

10:36: Meryl just got bleeped for longer than Ricky Gervais did. Awesome.

10:37: Harvey Weinstein passing Meryl Streep’s reading glasses up to the stage by way of George Clooney…I mean, how many awards show moments have been more surreal than that?

10:38: I love how Meryl’s apology to the British featured a camera cut to Madonna. For the third time, SHE’S NOT REALLY BRITISH.

10:39: Last year, Jane Fonda introduced the Burlesque clip. This year, the HFPA redeem themselves by having her present Best Picture – Comedy/Musical.

10:40: The Artist wins! Oscars, here we come. And predictably, Uggie is stealing the show.

10:45: So, 15 minutes left. By my count, we’ve got Best Drama Actor, Best Drama, and the In Memoriam montage. Am I missing anything? Other than 16 more commercials for Smash and Pepsi?

10:47: George Clooney wins Best Drama Actor for The Descendents as Leonardo DiCaprio politely, unhappily applauds.

10:49: And…Clooney’s been drinking.

10:50: Wait, commercial break? We’ve been back for 87 seconds.

10:52: Oh great, our fourth airing of the Pepsi commercial. Or, as Mom puts it, “Just give her the damn soda.”

10:54: Harrison Ford on to present the Best Drama award. Apparently we’re skipping an In Memoriam. Classy decision, HFPA.

10:55: And the award goes to The Descendents, so we’re suddenly awash in ukelele.

10:56: For a guy who was told to hurry, this producer is taking his sweet time. Alexander Payne (the director) nearly body-checks him out of the way to get his 30 seconds at the mic.

10:57: “I hope that took your mind off the recession.” Good night, Ricky.

So, the 2012 Golden Globes are in the books! Off to bed with you now, b-rollers. Try not to hear “Whatever Lola Wants” in your nightmares tonight, okay?

But before the Globes get rolling (Ha! See what I…anyway…), let me tell you who I’m rooting for, and give you my initial thoughts. Here’s the complete list of nominees if you’d like to follow along at home; I was amused to discover that the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) included hashtags* so that you can tweet about each category individually – because sometimes, you have a hankering to discuss “Best Screenplay” and nothing else – so in the spirit of the exercise, I’ll use their suggested hashtags, because I’m pretty sure no one else will. #analretentiveoverkillHFPA

*For those wondering “What the hell is a hashtag?” here is a Wikipedia cheat sheet.

#GoldenGlobesDrama (ie, Best Motion Picture – Drama) Wow, I have seen every one of these movies. It’s nice to feel like this opinion will be fully formed, rather than “Eeny, meeny, miny...” I must choose Hugo here, b-rollers, a film I thoroughly loved, faux-nostalgia be damned. A victory for The Help or Moneyball wouldn’t kill me, though; on the flip side, I was let down by both The Descendents and The Ides of March, so I have to vote nay on those. (I just torpedoed my shot at a fling with George Clooney, didn’t I? Dammit.)

#GoldenGlobesDramaActress I’m 2/5 on seeing these performances, so we’re officially in “catch a tiger by the toe” territory. If I had a vote, it would go to The Help‘s Viola Davis, but Meryl Streep will probably win. Although the HFPA loves rising young (pretty) stars, so don’t count out Rooney Mara.

#GoldenGlobesDramaActor Okay, here’s the line-up: Clooney, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Gosling, Pitt. Let’s be honest; no matter who takes the stage, we’re all winners here. Especially if it’s the marvelous and handsome George Clooney. (We cool, George?)

#GoldenGlobesComedyMusical Um, The Artist. The end. (Though I loved Bridesmaids. “Wow, women are funny and go to the movies!” Yes, we are/do! Thanks for not being condescending or anything!) Hey, why is My Week with Marilyn considered a comedy/musical? Michelle Williams sings a song, and I laughed less often at Marilyn than I did at Moneyball or The Help. #brollconfused

#GoldenGlobesComedyMusicalActress Oh, that’s why – so Michelle Williams gets a slam-dunk Golden Globe. Gotcha. Sneakily played, Harvey Weinstein.

#GoldenGlobesComedyMusicalActor As much as I loved Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid, Love. - wait, why isn’t that nominated for #GoldenGlobesComedyMusical? – Jean Dujardin owned the screen in The Artist (and does a damn fine De Niro impression.) Hopefully this gives him some momentum to challenge the big boys.

#GoldenGlobesAnimatedFilm I have only seen one of these films, which makes me feel like such a grown-up until I remind myself that I will absolutely be seeing Beauty and the Beast in 3D this weekend. And…scene. Anyway, the one I saw was Rango, and it was very clever and starred Johnny Depp. Ladies and gents, we have a winner.

#GoldenGlobesForeignLanguage This will shock you, but I have not seen any of these movies. Oh come on, like you have. Well, I hear A Separation is incredible (I very much want to see it, after Beauty and the Beast), so let’s go with that.

#GoldenGlobesSupActress Honestly, flip a coin. I’ve seen all but Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs, and these ladies were phenomenal. I guess I’ll continue my Artist streak and pick Berenice Bejo; she should win an award for that scene with the tuxedo, if nothing else.

#GoldenGlobesSupActor Hmmm…let’s say Christopher Plummer, who was delightful in Beginners. Awards shows do love to give these supporting prizes as Lifetime Achievement Awards, don’t they?

#GoldenGlobesDirector Well, it has to be the brilliant George Clooney for The Ides of March, right? (Or The Artist‘s Michel Hazanavicius or Hugo‘s Martin Scorsese. Them too.)

#GoldenGlobesScreenplay Okay, there’s someone named “Nat Faxon” in this category. Nat wins on principle. (Also, The Artist. Club, dead horse.)

#GoldenGlobesScore and #GoldenGlobesSong Not to lump all the music together, but have you recently raced home from a movie theater so you could download the score/original song to your iPod? No? Ditto. Just saying.

Okay, you guys, this is getting long. In keeping with the Globes themselves, let’s zip on through the TV categories, okay? (For the record, all of these categories have “TV” in the hashtag, while none of the movie categories have “film” in them. Just so we’re clear on the food chain.)

#GoldenGlobesTVDrama and #GoldenGlobesTVDrama Actress and #GoldenGlobesTVDramaActor See, I’m boycotting all of these categories because Friday Night Lights/Kyle Chandler/Connie Britton are not listed among the nominees. For SHAME, HFPA. Also, these categories are 90% shows I don’t watch, so there’s that. Boardwalk Empire or Game of Thrones probably take the Drama category (prestige, HBO, yadda), and I’d guess Jeremy Irons the Actor (they can never pass up a big name). And if there’s one “take it to the bank” pick of Golden Globes night, it’s Claire Danes for Homeland. Not only is she supposedly amazing in that show, but this category is the “best pretty young actress on TV” award almost every year. Lock it down, people.

#GoldenGlobesTVComedyMusical and #GoldenGlobesTVComedyMusicalActress and #GoldenGlobesTVComedyMusicalActor Now see, this is why these hashtags are asinine; by the time you finish typing #GoldenGlobesTVComedyMusicalActress into a tweet you have about 12 characters left. (And they should be “Amy Poehler.” Yes, I’m on the Parks & Rec bandwagon.) Anyway, anything-but-Glee for best show (yes, I still watch it; no, it’s not that good), and I’ll vote Alec Baldwin for Actor; it’s redundant, but regarding the rest of these nominees…um, what?

#GoldenGlobesTVMiniPic (Best Miniseries or Made for Television Motion Picture. You’re welcome.) Downton Abbey…clap, clap, CLAP CLAP CLAP…DOWNTON ABBEY…

#GoldenGlobesTVMiniPicActress and #GoldenGlobesTVMiniPicActor or Best British Actor/Actress on PBS or HBO. I’ll continue my Downton Abbey flag-waving on behalf of Lord and Lady Grantham, although I’m sure that Kate Winslet will win for Mildred Pierce. I adore her, so I’m okay with that.

#GoldenGlobesTVMiniPicSupActress and #GoldenGlobesTVMiniPicSupActor Congratulations, HFPA, you’ve officially devolved into complete gibberish. (And inaccurate gibberish at that, as these are for series as well as TVMiniPics. Well done.) Anyway. Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, and I will not accept that there is a close second (“What is a weekend?”). Could someone please inscribe “#TVMiniPicSupActress” on her statue, and then live-stream her reaction? Thank you. As for SupActor, I’ll pick Eric Stonestreet of Modern Family, because I adore his portrayal of Cameron and I am too poor to subscribe to HBO and see the other four performances. So there.

Well! This went on way longer than we thought, but then again, so will the Golden Globes telecast. Tune in with me on Sunday for my live reactions in bite-sized pieces, b-rollers. Until then. (Call me, George.)

Let me unspool this.

I read Stieg Larsson’s novel when it became popular here in the US, and it hooked me. In fact, related story: While I was reading it a friend visited, and I wasn’t feeling well so I stayed home and gave her my keys so she could go out; I became so engrossed in the book that I was still reading at 3am, just in the middle of the climactic “torture chamber” scene when my front door opened. (Advice: Don’t ever do that.)

Now that I was officially on the Dragon Tattoo bandwagon (with a newly-minted heart condition), I anxiously awaited the Swedish film adaptation, and not just because it felt terribly artsy to say I was attending a Swedish film (hey, I didn’t have to specify which one). That version was taut and dramatic, carefully following the novel’s blueprint; it was fascinating to see the characters brought to life in such a vivid way, as it always is when a good book is adapted really well.

Then came the news that an American version was in the works, because God forbid Hollywood pass up a blockbuster remake (or people read subtitles), but it was promising: David Fincher (perfect). Daniel Craig (ditto). Appropriately creepy trailers. And the movie is just what we thought it would be – darkly atmospheric, violent, twisty.

But not a moment of it surprised me, because I know those twists, intimately. I envied the friend I saw it with who had no idea what would happen, and gasped in shock. There were a few tweaks, one pretty big one in particular, but I saw it coming because, well, duh – if you know the story, that is.

It just feels rather like a paint-by-numbers exercise: A little darker here, maybe, a little bolder there, but the same picture. Maybe it was just one version too many; when a movie hinges on suspense, what happens when you know way too much?

I guess if I have to compare/critique, I did think that Rooney Mara was an excellent Lisbeth Salander, fairly equal to the wonderful Noomi Rapace of the original film. But I actually preferred the Swedish actor Michael Nyqvist, whose Blomkvist was a little less handsome and a little more flawed than Daniel Craig’s steely hero (who, incidentally, is the only main character without a Swedish accent – why, again?). But in plot and tone, Fincher’s adaptation is just as faithful to the novel as the last.

So, bottom line: As this new, improved? Dragon Tattoo appears to pick up steam heading into Oscar season (in a surprise, David Fincher received a Directors’ Guild nomination today over Steven Spielberg), should you see it?

Well, sure. You’ll like it, I think. Have you read the books? You should, they were great. And the Swedish movies are good, too, and they’re streaming on Netflix. But if you haven’t read the books, maybe see this one. Or just read it, then see it. Or the Swedish one.

Oh, hell. I don’t know.

Help me out, b-rollers. Any Dragon Tattoo fans out there – movie(s), book or otherwise? What did you think? And how do you judge a thriller when you know exactly what’s coming?

You may have seen this already – there are over a million YouTube hits, so I’m a bit late to the fleecy, nap-filled party here – but either way, I’m sure you will agree that this is one of the greatest things that’s ever been aired. I know I should weave the Forever Lazy into a thoughtful metaphor for the decay of American civilization, or at least be angry that this company stole my life motto, but I can’t. This is just too glorious. Not since the original Snuggie ad have I been this delighted by an informercial.

And speaking of the Snuggie, wasn’t this really just the next logical step, not only in sloth but in fashion? Not to channel my inner Tim Gunn, but I can’t help but think that the Forever Lazy is a bit more en trend than the artful draping of the Snuggie – jumpsuits are very in now, for some reason (ours is not to wonder why). I’m sorry, Snuggie, you are out. Auf wiedersehen.

So, b-rollers, I turn this over to you for an important debate: Would you, for any reason whatsoever, purchase a Forever Lazy? (Only ironically.) If so, which color? (I’m torn; the lovely gray looks like a white undershirt after 800 trips through the washing machine, but the electric pink is just so vibrant.) Would you, for any reason, be caught dead tailgating or attending a party in one? (Not without a lucrative endorsement deal.)

And, in conclusion, please allow me to kindly petition all Forever Lazy owners, present and future: When “duty calls,” for the love of God, remove the damn onesie.

Have a toasty warm weekend, b-rollers.

Everyone in the right frame of mind? Okay, cool. Let’s get started.

I read an interesting article by Mark Harris, the “Oscarologist” over at Grantland, a wonderful writer and film critic whom I always enjoy and generally agree with – but not right now. He posted a column last month on the mood of “belligerent nostalgia” in Hollywood, with a thesis that in troubled times, nostalgic films – Hugo, The Artist – tend to critically overwhelm movies that are set in and/or thematically more reflective of our modern era – say, the gritty The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, the angsty The Descendents, or even literally with a film like Margin Call, which dramatizes the Wall Street collapse – because audiences, critics and Oscar voters would rather revel in escapist fare than reward an onscreen representation of the current climate, thus creating a “faux-nostalgia” for times that were (in our imagination, at least) easier, or more romantic.

Basically, he wants us to snap the hell out of it before the “extremely slight” (his words) The Artist runs away with the Best Picture Oscar and the more authentically now films get left in its wake.

So while we’re sharing opinions, here’s mine: Guilty. I do like to escape. And frankly, I couldn’t give a good solid damn if the movie I escape into is of the now, the then, or the maybe soon. I like good movies, and I’ll take inspiration wherever I can find it, thanks.

We (collectively) have always used the movies as escapism; it’s a treat to slip into someone else’s world for a while, never more so than when you need a break from your own. And I personally think The Artist – which not only entertains but completely alters our usual moviegoing experience  – is a superb way to spend ten dollars and two hours. You’re transported in so many ways; not only can you glimpse the (clearly, admittedly romanticized) silent-era Hollywood, but you get to experience a film as that era’s audience would. Think about what a difficult trick this was: a black-and-white, silent film that not only interests but captivates an iPhone-laden audience conditioned to sensory overload. And it does.

I saw The Artist and The Descendents back-to-back, as part of a New Year’s Eve movie doubleheader, and I’d pick The Artist every day of the week and twice on New Year’s. Sure, The Descendents was beautifully acted and had quietly poignant moments (not to mention one helluva scenic backdrop), but while I could appreciate how messy and purposefully dysfunctional and real the film was, I often lacked a connection to the characters themselves; I wasn’t sure that I liked them enough to internalize their problems. The actors in The Artist – soundlessly – made me care. (Especially Uggie; I’m not much of a pet person, but I’m available to adopt him at any time.)

And it’s not like sentimentality and “relevance” are mutually exclusive, either. The Descendents wistfully eulogizes a pristine, pre-luxury resort Hawaii, and The Artist (kinda spoiler alert, although if you’ve seen the trailer, not really) depicts the sad slope to depression that can follow the loss of work, wealth and dignity; call me crazy, but that message resonates, doesn’t it? The Artist seems likely to clean up once the awards start rolling, and fans of The Descendents (or Dragon Tattoo, or Moneyball) will surely argue that it’s not as real, less timely, all glitz and no substance (not to nitpick, but see above note). But it won’t be a travesty; The Artist may not be as literally of-the-moment, but it’s an achievement all its own, and it’s certainly not irrelevant.

This argument especially sticks with me because it was such a crucial (and, I thought, infuriating) element of last year’s Oscar race: The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network. The advocates of The Social Network framed it as a race between the brilliant, innovative, zeitgeisty Network (fair point) and the overblown, sentimental Speech (much less fair), and when The King’s Speech won Best Picture, they threw up their hands and said, “Typical Hollywood. In with the old, out with the new.”

I preferred The King’s Speech, and that doesn’t make me dumber, or more sentimental, or less hip or critical. I saw both movies, enjoyed them, completely appreciated how timely and fascinating The Social Network was, and I just liked The King’s Speech better.

Call me lowbrow, but I just don’t care if the best movie of the year – mine, yours or Oscar voters’ – is a right now portrait of the world in which we live.

Ironically (to me, at least), one of Harris’s favorite films of the year was War Horse, a WWI period piece that disappointed me because I found it – ready for this? – incredibly heavy-handed and manipulative (though, admittedly, stunningly photographed). If any film commanded me to cry on cue, it was War Horse; if the “war is hell” imagery doesn’t get to you, may I interest you in the separation of a sweet farm boy from his beloved horse/soulmate?

Overly sentimental? Oh, yeah. But maybe you’ll love War Horse; maybe you’ll cry, and gasp, and savor every minute. Maybe The Artist will bore you to tears. And maybe The Descendents will hit you right in the gut, and move you in ways it didn’t quite move me.

No worries; it’s your escape, your two hours. Go wherever and whenever you want.

Anyway, what say you, b-rollers? What’s your prime realism-to-escapism ratio? And, more importantly, what’s your Best Picture (so far)?